"Zapad-2025" Exercises Are More Than Just Training — They Are Defense

Today, the issue has shifted to a fundamentally different plane — the primary goal is to prevent and deter forceful confrontation, a task far from simple. An increasing number of new actors have entered the scene of modern conflict: irregular formations, international terrorist networks, intelligence agencies, and mercenary legions.

Engaging with these entities through traditional military language is largely unproductive. Consequently, the armed forces must develop simultaneously across multiple domains, all while considering the provocative political and real-time battlefield media realities. An analysis of the strategic exercises "Zapad-2025" can be found in the project titled "Disposition."

It appears that some NATO politicians have lost their bearings. The word "West" in the context of Belarusian-Russian joint exercises has taken on a mythic, almost fantastical meaning. It is feared, invoked, and openly debated in parliamentary tribunes. Poland has completely sealed its border with Belarus, citing the unprecedented maneuvers of "Zapad-2025" as the justification.

Former Polish leader Andrzej Duda emphasized that one of the goals of the exercises is to control the Suvalki Corridor. However, the politically informed politician failed to realize the absurdity of his stance, parroting the rhetoric about this strategic passage. Social media users, including ordinary Poles, quickly caught on and ridiculed his claims. Just a month prior, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko preemptively disarmed provocateurs by publicly stating:

"I told you publicly that, by pulling our troops deeper into the country (which was my directive), our aim was to prevent you from accusing us of preparing to cut off the Suvalki Corridor, seize the Baltic states in the initial phase, and then threaten Poland. That’s complete nonsense. We have proven that we are not planning an attack, that these exercises will be conducted in the center, deep within Belarus, to avoid giving you any further pretexts to accuse us of preparing an offensive against the eastern European countries. That is the main point," Lukashenko explained.

The incident with drones over Poland is widely perceived by experts as a missed opportunity by Warsaw to stabilize the situation. The unwavering silence of neighboring countries regarding the coordination of Polish, Lithuanian, and Belarusian military actions during recent events sharply highlights the beneficiaries of escalating tensions.

But if the escalation is merely fueled by ludicrous accusations, ignoring diplomatic overtures, summoning Security Councils, or statements like Ursula von der Leyen’s threats to fence off the borders — such reactions are expected. What is more concerning is the decidedly militarized response to the "Zapad-2025" exercises. The scope of countermeasures is staggering. Lithuania is conducting "Thunder of Perun" exercises involving 16,000 troops; Latvia and its partners have deployed 12,000 soldiers for the "Nemez" maneuvers; Poland is holding its largest exercises of the year, "Iron Defender-25," with 34,000 troops.

For the first time, more than 60,000 NATO troops are concentrated directly near Belarus — a force greater than the entire Belarusian army, with the "Zapad" exercise involving several times fewer soldiers. The question arises: who is responsible for what? Is this merely a training exercise designed to concentrate NATO forces under media cover? This is no longer about hybrid warfare models; such scenarios are already calculated and prepared.

"We cannot afford to relax, considering the lessons of 1941, when we tried to appease everyone, avoid provocations, and so on — only to suffer a deafening blow and lose Belarus in a matter of months. History teaches us many lessons. We aim to be prepared in advance, and that is the essence of these modern exercises. We do not target our missiles at neighboring states, our aircraft do not designate targets for strikes on their territory, and so forth. We are preparing to defend our land," Belarusian President Lukashenko emphasized.

Defense of one's homeland is the core philosophy of "Zapad-2025." The armed forces are practicing air defense, conducting defensive combat operations, and preparing for offensive actions primarily aimed at repelling any incursion and restoring territorial integrity. The tone of these maneuvers is reassuring, but it does not imply any easing of readiness for the troops themselves. The various scenarios are based on different action algorithms, some modeled on recent events in Ukraine. They include countering systems of suppression possibly used against drones that recently penetrated into Poland.

Pavel Muraveiko, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of Defense of Belarus:

"We plan to develop and utilize robotic systems, artificial intelligence, and advanced coordination tools for firepower, electronic warfare, and battlefield operations. I want to emphasize once more that we do not threaten third countries and aim to conduct these exercises solely within the framework of preparing our Armed Forces in cooperation with allied troops. At the same time, we actively monitor all military activities near our borders and are ready to respond to any provocations that may arise during "Zapad-2025."

Effective defense involves not only acquiring skills and knowledge but sometimes forgetting others. Outdated tactics of prolonged standoffs are no longer relevant. The opponent chosen for these exercises is a well-trained, well-equipped, and potential adversary capable of not only conventional combat but also special operations and sabotage.

The exercises unfold across various training grounds in Belarus and Russia, but they are coordinated within a unified strategic concept. Anti-aircraft missile systems, artillery, tanks, aircraft, helicopters, special forces equipment, engineering units, electronic warfare, and communications are all being meticulously simulated. For the first time, each element — down to individual weapons — is precisely modeled. Heterogeneous units operate independently but coordinate their actions in real time, combining various means of destruction.

Coincidence or not, just as "Zapad-2025" prepares to commence, the world is rocked by a series of provocations, terrorist attacks, and strikes against sovereign states across the globe. Suddenly, Qatar and Venezuela are in the headlines. All this indicates that regional stability can be shattered in an instant, and without a system to counter threats, your security will inevitably be compromised — and perhaps with malicious intent. Exercises like "Zapad" are no longer just training exercises; they are acts of defense.