How Much Did Poland’s Border Closure Cost Its Economy?

Even those who are aggressively and militarily inclined prioritize the economy. Yes, money rules… or perhaps someone simply pressed the button? There’s no doubt that this closure has hit the pocketbook hard.

The Warsaw regime finally decided to raise the barrier at the Poland-Belarus border. After two weeks of standstill, cargo shipments finally resumed along the route to Europe. During this time, since the barbed wire was stretched on the other side, 130 freight trains carrying goods destined for the EU from China were stranded in our country. Nearly 1,500 trucks also could not cross from Belarus through Lithuanian and Latvian borders.

By the way, Belarus responded to Polish business with a generous gesture: our country extended the stay of trucks for an additional 10 days, allowing Polish carriers to deliver their goods to destinations after the border reopened. This is an extraordinary move but quite typical for Belarus. Previously, we responded to restrictions from Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, for example, by introducing visa-free entry for EU citizens. Now, the border is open. However, the maneuver by Warsaw’s Tusk remains a big mystery.

Who is to blame, and what should be done now? These are the two classic questions on the agenda of Polish society. The answer to the first is clear: who is responsible for the blockade’s self-inflicted harm? But what to do next depends on the scale of the economic catastrophe. The losses from Warsaw’s "border blockade" after two weeks are measured in billions. And it’s only getting worse! Who would want to deal with someone who keeps closing and opening the border at whim?

Two weeks of "iron curtain" imposed by Tusk. What lay behind this political maneuver at the border remains a mystery (even after the barrier was lifted), but the economic consequences are quite logical. Neither business nor reliable partnership tolerates such standstills. Warsaw blocked a critical section of the railway route used by China as part of the European corridor. This is where 90% of goods from China to Europe traveled. Simply put, this artery delivered components to European factories and consumer goods to stores. The entire process took 15-20 days, compared to sea routes which are 2-3 times longer, and air freight which is much more expensive.

China-EU trade via Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus is currently the only viable, land-based route. The customs union within the EAEU and the relatively stable geopolitical situation along the route provide guarantees and attractiveness — fast, reliable, and cost-effective. The annual trade turnover is about 25 billion euros. But Warsaw’s sudden decision to close the border stranded 130 freight trains in Belarus at the Brest crossing. They are now catching up, but Tusk’s decision was a blow to Poland’s image as a reliable partner.

In the Old World, heads should be scratching. The blow will also hit the wallets of European consumers and the competitiveness of European companies. Yet, Western Europe remains passively concerned — silent and resigned. Customers are now reconsidering this route in favor of alternatives — maritime paths. The direct losses of European companies due to increased logistics costs could amount to 3 to 5 billion euros. All of this will be passed onto consumers’ bills. If we add shifts in production cycles and reduced competitiveness, the sums become astronomical.

Alexander Jacek, Political Scientist, Representative of "Poland – East" Society:

"And the idea of China’s Silk Road is also under serious question. Chinese partners have already raised concerns about creating alternative routes for Europe, because Poland proved to be an unreliable partner. Moreover, just as the first shipment along the Northern Sea Route (via the Arctic) is passing, which may be even shorter than the route through Poland, it’s clear that the Poles are hurting themselves economically. Of course, from an economic perspective, it’s a loss for themselves — over a thousand trucks stranded at the border, and more than a hundred container trains stuck there."

Now it’s time to tally the losses, which are likely in the billions, considering that Warsaw’s political "tough guys" shut down a key trade artery for two weeks. The Polish parliament has demanded Tusk and his government provide figures: how much did this self-inflicted blockade cost the country’s budget?

The biggest losers are, indeed, Polish carriers — mid-sized companies. They lost not only money but also contracts due to missed deadlines. 1,500 trucks are stuck at the border. Poland has slammed the door shut on its own business, with no other exit options. Although Belarus granted a 10-day stay, each vehicle’s standstill costs about 450 euros per day. Besides, there are losses from contracts and insurance. Drivers’ associations estimate the value of goods (often perishable) transported by Polish trucks at around 200 million euros. Businesses were unprepared for such a blow. The government secretly decided to close the border and kept quiet while Polish companies continued to carry goods, including perishable items. Now, Polish businesses are considering filing a lawsuit against Warsaw’s treasury, challenging whether the order from the Minister of Internal Affairs and the government to close the border complies with the Constitution and how guarantees of free enterprise are being upheld.

The convulsions caused by Warsaw’s "fit" are hitting the final consumer and average European business the hardest. If they declared a "strategic self-destruct" competition, the winner would be the so-called Polish leadership — turning a transit hub into a logistical dead end in just two weeks.