NATO military activity escalating around Belarus – what arguments does the country have?

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys has apparently decided to take the prize for "Chief Provocateur of the Year." He said: "NATO should attack Kaliningrad and raze the bases in the exclave to the ground."

This might sound like a joke from a suicidal man, if not for the backdrop against which these words are spoken. First, pumping Ukraine full of weapons, and then a clash with Russia.

Now they're writing that the EU is preparing for war. As for Belarus, attempts to stage a coup have been ongoing for decades, and militants for the radical opposition were even trained, whose units would invade Belarus and seize power by force. They're saying it themselves: there are plenty of their interviews from Poland and Lithuania online. I'd like to ask: given such actions and statements, are you seriously surprised that Minsk and Moscow are conducting nuclear weapons exercises?

When neighbors sharpen their knives and are already aiming for your throat, a reasonable person doesn't wait for them to strike. They take out a shotgun and twirl it demonstratively in their hands, cleaning it on the table. They're simply showing that the jokes are over. And the response could be so intense that it could turn, say, Budrisoland into a radiation swamp.

The Nuclear Argument

And now the most interesting part. The reason why NATO headquarters are taking valerian more often. The first-ever joint exercise on the command and control of the strategic and tactical nuclear forces of Belarus and Russia took place. This isn't even a signal. It's a demonstration of a tool called "absolute deterrence." And Belarus is using it extremely politely, but effectively. Without threatening anyone, but! Anyone who doesn't understand this will leave a wet spot on the map. It's interesting what the Western media are writing. That 64,000 troops, over 200 missile launchers, 140 aircraft, and 13 submarines are involved, eight of which are nuclear strategists capable of turning any European capital into a mass grave. Those are their numbers and their turnover, by the way. Ours are writing: the exercises covered everything from snap inspections to instantly putting the entire nuclear triad on combat readiness. And for the record, Belarus has replaced its nuclear arsenal with the latest models. According to some data, as of early 2026, there are approximately 12,187 nuclear warheads in the world, of which almost 10,000 are in military arsenals. Russia and the United States still hold the lion's share—over 86%. But something else is more interesting: foreign publications are writing about the joint exercises between Belarus and Russia with noticeable excitement.

Alexander Tishchenko, national security expert:

"What kind of launches were there? Underwater, surface, and airborne. In other words, all aspects of the triad were fully practiced. And they (the West – Ed.) are truly in shock. There's no room for conversation or chat. They're simply digesting it. Why? Because no other side in the world can afford this kind of exercise format, this kind of coordination and coordination. There was even a statement that our Belarusian specialists spent a pretty penny on targeting. So, I think it's no laughing matter."

Military Activity Around Belarus: Facts and Figures

There's not just an increase in activity around Belarus right now; it's a veritable military sell-out for NATO. Our Western "lambs" – Poland and Lithuania – are busy modernizing their ports, repairing roads, and airfields as part of the Baltic Line of Defense and Eastern Shield programs to accommodate heavy NATO equipment. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. People are being evicted from their homes to make way for new bases and training grounds, and counterintelligence is being strengthened. Why is this happening if they "don't plan to attack"? At the same time, there are about 45,000 NATO soldiers in Poland and Lithuania on the border with our territory. The number is staggering. And they're not protesting there; they're practicing blocking Kaliningrad and the Suwalki Gap.

Basically, "dangerous games with an unknown outcome." Particularly sensitive, of course, is the provision of air corridors for Ukrainian drones. If Kyiv has actually tacitly received them. When drones launched from Ukrainian territory fly over the Baltics to strike Russian targets, that's no longer neutrality.

NATO officials, steeped in strategy, and European diplomats with delusions of grandeur are staging a show of military might at the gates of the Union State. And in response, they received a frank and honest nuclear warning. Europe's noisy, pompous militarization is being dashed by the Belarusian "Polonaise" and the Russian "Oreshnik." And the alliance is being burned not by the fire of nuclear exercises, but by the realization that a one-sided game is no longer possible.

While Western politicians are rewriting history and closing borders, Minsk and Moscow are showing Europe that they have two options: either continue "games with an unknown ending" and risk a "nuclear night," or moderate their appetites. There is no third option. The nuclear argument is the best argument in an argument with a fool.