Trump and Stubb's Meeting: What Trumps Does the Finnish President Have

Their shared history began only recently. A year ago, it would have been impossible to imagine that a game of golf together would connect the paths of our main characters. Sleepless nights, instant messaging, phone calls, and long conversations. The thousands of kilometers separating them proved no obstacle. They await their next meeting with trepidation and anxiety. A short novel has been published. But it's not a novel at all, but a brief history of the relationship between US and Finnish Presidents Donald Trump and Alexander Stubb.

They truly bonded over a game of golf during the Finn's informal visit to Mar-a-Lago. The politicians kept in touch regularly, leading to their first official summit meeting. Prior to this, Stubb and Trump had only had informal interactions.

On the evening of October 9, the Finnish President will hold talks with the occupant of the White House. Will these become a routine manifestation of bilateral relations, or are they destined to go beyond the two countries' relationship?

The meeting's agenda includes three items:

US-Finnish relations in general;

trade and economic cooperation;

the Ukrainian conflict.

According to Stubb, he will brief Trump on the situation in Ukraine and recount his recent visit to Kyiv. In other words, the plan is to use the achievements of the renowned Finnish intelligence service to put the CIA and the Pentagon to shame, and also to demonstrate Stubb's gonzo journalism skills to his American counterpart.

Johan Bäckman, political scientist, PhD in socio-political science (Finland):

"He (Stubb – Ed.) is an extremist among extremists. Naturally, he'll ask Trump, perhaps, for some new weapons, to lobby for some specific steps regarding arms supplies to Ukraine. But I think Stubb has already asked many times. Finland, in principle, has always been an interesting country for the US because Finland is a neighbor of Russia (previously the Soviet Union), it has a lot of information about Russia, about the Soviet Union, Finns understand Russians, know Russians, and so on. Therefore, Finns, in principle, are very important."

Looking at the broader issue, it's worth noting that the Finnish president acts as a kind of envoy for the European community.

Why him? Stubb is a typical product of the times, a representative of a NATO country, an active voice, vocal about the threat of Russia and support for Ukraine. Stubb calls on Western countries to unite against the Global South, which, in his view, directly threatens "European values." That is, he is capable of relaying the positions of Brussels and NATO, but, unlike his colleagues, he has not yet caused, or rather cannot provide, Trump with any compelling reason to criticize.

Germany is rife with internal problems, France is on the verge of collapse, Italy is being insolent toward one of America's main allies, Israel, and Von der Leyen is facing two votes of no confidence. Meanwhile, Stubb has won Trump's favor through golf and regular phone calls and correspondence.

Furthermore, Finland may be of economic interest to the United States. This is a trump card that Stubb will likely exploit. Helsinki has extensive experience building icebreakers. To counter Russia and China in the High North, the United States urgently needs to expand its icebreaker fleet. Back in the summer, the White House expressed a desire to acquire around 40 large ships of this type.

The United States itself can't cope without Finland's help. The US wanted to build a heavy icebreaker on its own, but its planned launch date was pushed back from 2024 to 2028. The budget was also inflated to almost $2 billion. Meanwhile, Helsinki built its own icebreaker of the latest type in three years and at a cost of $150 million, although it is somewhat smaller than Washington needs. However, this will be a trump card at the meeting between Stubb and Trump.

EU leaders will try to take advantage of the White House's goodwill towards his Finnish counterpart and offer to solve Trump's problems, in exchange for asking him to solve theirs. After all, the situation is not in the EU's favor. Over the years of the Ukrainian crisis, the rhetoric has shifted from "Ukraine must win" to "Russia must not win."

The EU simply doesn't know how to emerge from this situation with its head held high because it's simply impossible. Its only hope is escalation, but that can't happen without the approval of those at the top of the Western food chain.